BYU hopes to pick up head of steam heading into postseason

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/06/2010 - Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Already designated as the second seed in the upcoming Mountain West Conference Tournament in Las Vegas next week, the 14th- ranked BYU Cougars clash with the TCU Horned Frogs this evening in Fort Worth.

BYU, which has lost two games to regular-season champ New Mexico already, is trying to finish the campaign strong as it shoots for its second straight win and the sixth in seven tries as it takes the floor. On Wednesday night, the Cougars ripped through in-state rival Utah in a 71-51 final in Salt Lake City.

As for the Horned Frogs, they enter the weekend in seventh place in the MWC standings with a record of 5-10, having won just three times in their last 11 decisions. Three nights ago, the program was taken down by eighth-ranked New Mexico in The Pit, 73-66.

With respect to the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, the Cougars lead by a count of 14-3 and easily took care of TCU in the first meeting of the season with a 76-56 triumph in Provo.

The usually reliable Jimmer Fredette, one of the top scorers in the nation, made just 1-of-7 from the floor and finished with only eight points in 19 minutes, yet the Cougars still prevailed in their meeting with Utah on the road. Picking up the slack was Brandon Davies who tallied a game-high 21 points and cleared seven rebounds off the bench, while Michael Loyd and Jackson Emery tacked on 18 and 11 points, respectively. The fact that BYU never trailed may have played a part in allowing the reserves some additional time on the floor, but what it really means is that the Cougars don't always need their big guns to get the job done. Now at 20.7 ppg on the season, Fredette is still shooting a whopping 47.8 percent behind the three-point line and continues to lead the group with his 136 assists over the course of his 29 appearances. Emery (12.3 ppg), Tyler Haws (11.7 ppg) and Jonathan Tavernari (10.1 ppg) have been integral in pushing BYU to a scoring advantage of more than 18 ppg this season.

The Horned Frogs gave it a good run against New Mexico, but the team just couldn't keep up the intensity on the road in front of more than 14,000 in the stands. Zvonko Buljan finished with a double-double consisting of 12 points and 11 rebounds, while Ronnie Moss accounted for 14 points, but just three assists before fouling out. Edvinas Ruzgas added 12 points and Keion Mitchem 11 points before he too picked up his fifth personal. Moss, the leading scorer in three of the last four games for TCU, paces the program overall this season with his 14.6 ppg, even though he has shot just 39.4 percent from the field. More importantly, Moss has been crucial to the offense because of his passing which has led to 183 assists and made him one of the leaders in the entire nation in that department. Buljan (12.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and Ruzgas (10.7 ppg) have been up and down this season so it is no wonder the squad has been inconsistent.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.