Hogs host Warhawks in non-conference action

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Little Rock, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks of the SEC will attempt to knock off the UL-Monroe Warhawks, a team from the Sun Belt Conference set to open its season.

In December, ULM announced Todd Berry as the program's 14th head coach. Berry, who was the program's offensive coordinator from 2004-05, spent the last three seasons calling plays at UNLV. He inherits a club that is in a rebuilding mode, as the Warhawks split their 12 games a year ago. Few starters return on defense for ULM, and while the offense is a bit more experienced, there is no doubt that the squad enters this opener as a huge underdog.

As for Arkansas, it began the campaign with a 44-3 thrashing of Tennessee Tech, an FCS squad.

"I like the way we came out of halftime, because we started to settle down and run the ball better," said coach Bobby Petrino after the triumph.

Petrino is in his third year at the helm at Arkansas and has obviously made an impact in a short time considering the team came into the season with its highest ranking since 1990. The Razorbacks went 8-5 overall in 2009, including posting their first bowl victory since 2003, a 20-17 win over East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl.

Arkansas has won all eight of its previous meetings with UL-Monroe, the most recent of which took place in 2008.

It will be interesting to see who starts and finished the game at quarterback for ULM. Trey Revell was the starter last season and ranked third in the Sun Belt in passing efficiency. The 6-4, 222-pound Revell is a dual threat, throwing for 1,739 yards and rushing for 311 more last year, but a late-season slump and thumb injury has opened the door for redshirt freshman Kolton Browning. The frosh showed enough in the spring to be considered the lead candidate.

"This is pretty much a quarterback driven offense and it puts a tremendous amount of pressure on those guys intellectually in what we are asking the quarterback to do, in relation to what they have done in the past," said Berry.

The key player for the ULM offense is tailback Frank Goodin, who is less than 900 yards shy of becoming the program's all-time leading rusher. The 5-9, 211- pound Goodin earned Second Team All-SBC honors a season ago, rushing for 1,126 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Using a 3-3-5 scheme, ULM boasted one of the best defensive units in the Sun Belt last season and ranked 44th nationally in total defense (347.0 ypg). Seven starters are now gone, leaving the Warhawks with a major rebuilding project.

"We don't care who plays, we are going to put the best players out on the field based on what fits our system," stated Berry.

The Warhawks welcome back only a single starter along the defensive line, but he is a good one in Troy Evans. Only one starter returns to the linebacking corps as well, but the secondary is a little more settled with two starters and some experienced depth welcomed back. Safety Darius Prelow has all-league potential and he started to emerge as a force last season.

Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett began his 2010 Heisman campaign in style against Tennessee Tech last weekend, completing 21-of-24 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns.

"The first win is always the toughest one," said Mallett. "You never know what to expect the first game out. Tennessee Tech did some things well in the first half, but we were able to adjust in the second half and played really good defense."

Ronnie Wingo Jr., Dennis Johnson and Broderick Green each had a score on the ground while Joe Adams finished the game with six catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns. Arkansas totaled 519 yards of offense in the clash, but the level of competition obviously wasn't up to SEC standards.

Defensively, Arkansas limited Tennessee Tech to 79 rushing yards on 43 carries, an impressive showing by any standards. The pass defense was solid as well, allowing just a 50 percent completion rating. While the Razorbacks did fail to come up with a single takeaway, they posted a pair of sacks and battled for four quarters.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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