Lightning hope to get on track versus Maple Leafs

Hockey Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning will aim for just their second win in eight games when they visit the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight at Air Canada Centre.

The Lightning are only five points out of a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference, but have posted a 1-6-0 record in their last seven games. Tampa has dropped three of four since the Olympic break and is coming off Tuesday's road loss against Montreal.

The Canadiens posted a 5-3 win over the Bolts, marking the sixth time in seven games that Tampa Bay has surrendered five goals or more. The Lightning's lone win during that stretch came in a 6-2 victory over Atlanta on Saturday.

Steven Stamkos scored a goal and dished out an assist for the Lightning, who have dropped six of seven. Martin St. Louis and Matt Walker also lit the lamp in defeat.

Antero Niittymaki gave up four goals on 13 shots before being pulled near the midway point of the second. Mike Smith turned aside 14-of-15 shots in relief.

"We have to find a way to win on the road," Stamkos said. "It has become too common. We're going to run out of time if we can't win on the road."

The Lightning are just 9-19-5 as the guest this year and have lost four straight road games. Tonight's tilt marks the middle test of a three-game road trip for Tampa.

The team's road woes have not been the fault of Stamkos, at least not recently. The 2008 No. 1 overall draft choice is riding a franchise-record 17- game point streak and has amassed 16 goals and 15 assists over that span. Stamkos is third in the league with 41 goals, placing him behind only Washington's Alex Ovechkin and Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby.

Tampa could be without winger Ryan Malone for a second straight game as he continues to battle an upper-body injury suffered Saturday against Atlanta.

The Maple Leafs are last in the East with 54 points but they have registered a point in four straight games, going 2-0-2 over that span.

Toronto was able to record a win its last time out, edging visiting Boston, 4-3, in Tuesday's overtime decision. Nikolai Kulemin scored with 49.7 seconds left in OT to lead the Leafs to the dramatic victory.

Wayne Primeau, Carl Gunnarsson and Luca Caputi also scored in regulation for the Maple Leafs, helping their team win for just the second time in seven games. Jonas Gustavsson stopped 26-of-29 shots to get the win.

"We're playing for pride right now and some guys are playing for jobs next year. When you're out there you want to win," Gustavsson said.

Toronto, which is just 12-14-5 as the host this year. will complete a three- game homestand Saturday against Edmonton.

The Lightning have won two of its three tests against Toronto this year, but both of those victories came in overtime. Tampa has taken six of eight overall in the series and has won three straight in Toronto.

Tonight marks the final scheduled matchup of the year between the Bolts and Leafs.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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