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03/10/2010 - Ogden, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A trip to the NCAA Tournament is on the line tonight, as the Weber State Wildcats and the Montana Grizzlies do battle in the championship game of the 35th annual Big Sky Conference Tournament at the Dee Events Center in Ogden, Utah.
As the top seed in this year's event and an owner of eight Big Sky Tournament titles, Weber State had to play only one game in order to make it into the finals and that was a 69-60 win over sixth-seeded Portland State on Tuesday night. The victory was revenge for the regular-season finale in which the Vikings captured an 84-79 win to snap WSU's five-game win streak.
As for fourth-seeded Montana, it began the annual event with an 81-60 thumping of Northern Arizona in the quarterfinals on Saturday and then a 68-63 win versus second-seeded Northern Colorado last night in the semifinals. The Grizzlies, who won back-to-back crowns in 2005 and 2006, the former coming against this same Weber State club, has a total of six tourney championships to their credit.
The teams split their two regular-season meetings, with each winning on their home floor. As a result, Weber State remains ahead in the all-time series with a 58-47 mark.
Anthony Johnson came up with 19 points, hitting all but one of his eight free- throw attempts, as he guided the Grizzlies to the upset win over Northern Colorado on Tuesday. Also scoring in double figures for Montana were Ryan Staudacher and Will Cherry with 10 points apiece, although the former did his damage on 4-of-5 shooting from the field and the latter just 4-of-12 accuracy. Johnson, the leading scorer in each of the last three games and nine of the last 10 outings, is responsible for 18.9 ppg on the strength of not only 50 percent shooting from the field, but also 46.7 percent beyond the arc and 184- of-211 at the charity stripe. As someone who forces the action as well as anyone in the conference, Johnson made twice as many free-throws as all but one of his teammates even had a chance to attempt this season. Staudacher, a 45.8 percent three-point shooter himself, helped the program to make good on 40.2 percent of their threes altogether.
With Portland State's Dominic Waters in foul trouble, Damian Lillard took over for the Wildcats last night as he tallied a game-high 23 points, grabbed five rebounds and handed out four assists in the nine-point win at home. Franklin Session added 13 points and eight boards in order to shake off five turnovers, while Trevor Morris tallied 10 points in just 21 minutes off the bench for a Weber State squad that outscored the visitors at the free-throw line, 22-6. Lillard, the leading scorer in each of the last three games for the Wildcats, has generated a team-best 20.7 ppg against Big Sky foes this season, shooting an impressive 44.0 percent from three-point range in those decisions. As someone who gets involved in all facets of the game, Lillard also led the team in assists with 110 and has been credited with better than four rebounds per game as well. Steve Panos (11.0 ppg) and Session (10.6 ppg) also lend a hand at the offensive end of the floor.
<< Robert Morris battles Quinnipiac for NEC crown
Hamden, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats and the
second-seeded Robert Morris Colonials are set to collide in the championship
game of the 2010 Northeast Conference Tournament, and the winner will receive
an automatic bid
<< Time is now to eliminate head shots in hockey
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A concussion is serious, and the NHL may
finally be waking up to the fact. Anyone who has had a serious knock will tell
you that the effects can be scary. While the league has spent years dancing
around the s
<< Garciaparra calls it a career
Fort Myers, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox have called a morning
news conference at which time infielder Nomar Garciaparra is expected to
announce his retirement.
According to Boston sports talk station WEEI, Garciaparra
<< Bryant's heroics lift Lakers past Raptors
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant played hero again, sinking the
winning jumper from the right baseline with 1.9 seconds left, and the Los
Angeles Lakers snapped a three-game skid with a 109-107 victory over the
Toronto
Nuggets visit Wolves without Karl >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Without their head coach patrolling the sidelines, the
Denver Nuggets will start up a four-game road trip tonight against a Minnesota
Timberwolves team hoping to end a string of six straight losses when it takes
the Target Ce
Thunder return home to face Hornets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be well on their
way towards ending a playoff drought, the New Orleans Hornets enter tonight's
showdown between these teams in danger of missing out of the postseason fray.
The injur
Raptors make a stop in Sacramento >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reeling Toronto Raptors aim to right the ship tonight
as they resume a four-game western road trip against the Sacramento Kings.
The Raptors are now fighting for their playoff lives after dropping the opener
of thei
Devils return home for battle with rival Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three straight road games out west following the Olympic
break seemed to have caught up with the Devils in their most recent contest.
New Jersey now returns home for the first time in nearly a month this evening
when it pl
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.
Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.
MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .
''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''
Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.
He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.
''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''
Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.
Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.
With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.
Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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